A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis. Engineering Geology, 88, 1-22.

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis has been developed. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical information of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. A scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg–Richter equation. This methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily.