The cost gap between electric and petrol cars: an estimate via a persona-based deterministic and a probabilistic total cost of ownership model

The aim of this paper is to estimate whether there exists a total cost of ownership (TCO) gap between electric and petrol cars and what are its main determinants. The paper applies a deterministic and probabilistic model to compare three of the best-selling electric cars in Italy relative to their petrol equivalents : the Nissan Leaf, the Smart ED and the Renault Zoe, relative to the Nissan Pulsar, Smart Forfour and Renault Clio. Adopting a persona-based approach, four stylized Personae are described, differing in terms of place of residence, the percentage of urban trips, garage availability and annual kilometres travelled. In order to gain an idea of how large is the section of the Italian population that would find electric cars TCO competitive, we use data on 657 drivers’ characteristics residing in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region. We find that with the current purchase subsidy the Nissan Leaf is TCO competitive relative to the Nissan pulsar for 84% of the drivers, the Smart Electric relative to the petrol Smart for 58% of the drivers and the Renault Zoe relative to the Renault Clio only for 3% of the drivers.