ECONOMIC IMPACT AND DECARBONIZATION POTENTIAL OF H2 INTEGRATION IN GLASS MANUFACTURING HTA

Following the international initiatives introduced at the COP28 and COP29 events in 2023-2024 and aligned with European regulatory frameworks targeting carbon neutrality by 2050, this study investigates the influence of price and cost variability on the potential penetration of hydrogen (H₂) in the Glass Hard-to-Abate (HTA) sector. The authors develop a novel methodological approach based on a stochastic framework to evaluate H₂ production costs, CO₂ credits, incentivization schemes, and market prices. This comprehensive methodology leverages proprietary databases to analyze H₂ production costs, CO₂ emission factors, and the economic feasibility of decarbonizing industrial operations through H₂ integration. The paper focuses on the glass manufacturing industry as a case study, providing a detailed analysis of energy consumption patterns, including electricity and heat requirements. A breakdown of industrial heat demands into low-temperature, medium-temperature, and high-temperature ranges forms the basis for exploring combined heat and power (CHP) technologies coupled with heat pumps (HPs) as potential decarbonization solutions. Sensitivity analysis evaluate variations in H₂ blending fractions with methane (CH₄), emphasizing the impact of price and cost fluctuations on CO₂ emission reductions and operational costs. Additional investigations include the influence of emission factors, carbon tax policies, and the role of incentivization mechanisms in shaping the economic and environmental viability of H₂ integration. Results demonstrate that while H₂-based solutions hold promise for accelerating the decarbonization of the HTA sectors, their adoption remains limited by techno-economic challenges. A holistic paradigm shift, supported by adaptive policies and dynamic economic frameworks, is essential to achieve the ambitious CO₂ reduction targets within the required timeframe.