Impact of New Environmental Rules on the Fuel and Emissions Costs of a Mediterranean Cruise

The regulations introduced by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and, to an even greater extent, by the European Union (EU) regarding maritime emissions present increasing challenges for shipping companies. The IMO Carbon Intensity Indicator may restrict the operations of less environmentally efficient vessels, while the inclusion of ships in the EU Emissions Trading System and the limits on greenhouse gas intensity are progressively integrating the concept of a carbon tax for vessels operating within, to, or from the EU. Furthermore, starting May 1, 2025, the Mediterranean Sea will be designated as a Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA), requiring ships without scrubbers to use the more expensive Marine Gas Oil. This study quantifies the financial impact of these regulations by analysing fuel and emissions costs associated with a typical West Mediterranean cruise across different years. Fuel consumption is estimated using a probabilistic methodology that accounts for key environmental factors, including wind, sea state, currents, and ambient air temperature. The method is applied to a large cruise ship equipped with four diesel generators, only two of which are fitted with scrubber units. The findings indicate that in 2027, compared to a baseline scenario in 2023 when no environmental regulations were in force fuel and emissions costs will increase by more than 60% for the studied cruise.