Serendipity and Zemblanity: Diverging paths from unexpected events

Imagine two islands. One is Serendip, long associated with unexpected discovery, where chance encounters can give rise to outcomes that are both surprising and valuable. The other is its lesser-known counterpart, Zembla, a colder and more austere terrain. On this island, outcomes deteriorate not through bad luck alone, but through sequences of decisions that gradually and often imperceptibly undermine the system itself. Placing these two imaginaries side by side raises a question that has received relatively little attention in serendipity research: where should the boundary of serendipity be drawn? Recent work conceptualized serendipity through the interplay of agency, surprise, and value. Yet many empirical cases, particularly in organizational settings, seem to follow a similar underlying process while leading to markedly different outcomes. Unexpected events still occur. Actors still interpret and respond. However, instead of generating value, these processes culminate in decline. To account for this pattern, in this work, I introduce the concept of organizational zemblanity.