Split, talks or takeover – three scenarios for the Sudan war: local roots, external actors and policy options

Sudan’s civil war has evolved into a grinding, increasingly regionalised conflict fuelled by security fragmentation, rival war economies and centre–periphery divides. The Gulf monarchies and neighbouring powers shape the battlefield through arms, finance and diplomatic cover, deepening proxy-war dynamics. Three scenarios now dominate: a high-likelihood drift toward a de facto split, a possible Gulf-driven return to talks, or a lower-probability military takeover by one of the two warring parties.