Egypt and Turkey in the Hornet’s Nest of the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa has emerged as one of the most volatile and strategically significant sub-regions within the broader Red Sea geopolitical landscape. Its instability is now defined by the interaction of overlapping crises that connect inland wars, maritime competition and external intervention, rather than by a single conflict or bilateral rivalry. In this context, Egypt and Turkey stand out as two actors whose recent engagement represents a significant qualitative shift, reflecting two distinct models of regional involvement: Egypt’s approach is primarily strategic and security-driven, shaped by concerns over Ethiopia, Nile waters and Red Sea balances; Turkey has developed a broader and more flexible model combining diplomatic outreach, economic ties, humanitarian assistance and military cooperation.