A Comment on “Learning from Aggregated Opinion”

Oktar, Lombrozo, and Griffiths (2024) conducted a series of three online experiments toinvestigate how people form and update their beliefs when informed by aggregatedopinions. They compared the performance of three computational models—a Bayesianmodel and two heuristic models (UPCO: Updating on the Credence’s of Others, andCompetence)—in predicting participants' observed belief updates. Their findingsrevealed that the Bayesian model was the best predictor of belief updates overall, though the behavior of a substantial percentage of participants was better captured by one of the two other models. In this work, I first assess the computational reproducibility of their study, finding that their reported results and figures reproduce almost perfectly. Their analyses closely follow the preregistration, with one exception in Experiment 1 that did not affect the results. Further testing employed non-linear mixed models to address analytical limitations of Study 3. Results revealed that performance measure selection influences which model appears superior: Bayesian models were the best in terms of RMSE and AIC , while UPCO models were the best in terms of MAE. Moreover, substantial variation is observed in how subjects’ weight prior judgments. Finally, I discuss a Bayesian model that exponentially increases the weight of prior judgment as it becomes more polarized, and the individual becomes more confident in it