Landslide Susceptibility Analysis in Arandu Area Shigar Valley, CKNP (Gilgit-Baltistan- Pakistan)

The Pakistani Gilgit-Baltistan are recognised as being one of the most beautiful and interesting places in the world due to the presence of the longest glaciers and the highest reliefs. This area remained remote and inaccessible before 1965, after which began the construction of the first roads (Karakoram Highway – KKH). In 1992, the Pakistani Government delegated the responsibility for initiating a preliminary survey to outline the borders of the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP). These surveys resulted in the preliminary outline of the CKNP area (about 3.000 km2), in which the major mountain massifs (as Mt. K2), watersheds, and glaciers were included. Since then, several proposals followed. With the aim of preserving this natural beauty for future generations as well as providing the CKNP of a Management Plan, a 5-year multidisciplinary project called SEED (Social, Economic, Environmental Development) started. One of the project’s objectives was the analysis of the landslide geohazards aiming at the implementation of a landslide inventory and the realization of a susceptibility map. The Arandu village, which is part of Shigar valley, where the Chogolungma glacier is, was chosen as test area. During the summer survey had in 2012, part of the landslide-prone areas, previously identified through DEM analysis (derived from ASTER and Remote Sensing (RS) images) and GIS techniques were identified validating the obtained maps. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to extract the factor weights in a pairwise comparison matrix. Frequency ratio (FR) method was adopted to drive each class weight. The Weighted linear combination was used in the end to determine the landslide susceptibility index value (LSI).