In modelling football outcomes, scores’ data are regularly used for the estimation of the attack and the defence strength of each team. However, these teams’ abilities are quite complex and are correlated with many quantities inherent to the game. Additional available information, relevant for their estimation, are shots, both made and conceded. For such a reason, we propose a hierarchical model that incorporates this information in three stages for each game and each team: number of scores, number of shots on target and number of total shots. We fit the model on English Premier League data and obtained predictions for future matches.

Are the shots predictive for the football results?

Egidi Leonardo;Pauli Francesco;Torelli Nicola
2018-01-01

Abstract

In modelling football outcomes, scores’ data are regularly used for the estimation of the attack and the defence strength of each team. However, these teams’ abilities are quite complex and are correlated with many quantities inherent to the game. Additional available information, relevant for their estimation, are shots, both made and conceded. For such a reason, we propose a hierarchical model that incorporates this information in three stages for each game and each team: number of scores, number of shots on target and number of total shots. We fit the model on English Premier League data and obtained predictions for future matches.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11368/2929561
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