Türkiye’s Evolving Security Perceptions in the Shadow of the Ukraine War: Strategic Realignment and Regional Implications

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has had a profound impact on Türkiye’s national security perceptions, partially reshaping its strategic priorities and regional outlook. At the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia, Türkiye has historically navigated complex security dynamics. However, the war in Ukraine has intensified Ankara’s focus on its geopolitical vulnerabilities, energy security, and defence autonomy. This chapter explores how the war has prompted a recalibration of Türkiye’s security doctrine, particularly in light of heightened tensions between NATO and Russia, Ankara’s reliance on the Black Sea for trade transit, and its aspirations to remain a key regional powerbroker. The chapter examines Türkiye’s response to the changing European security order, including its strengthened defence industry, its balancing act between NATO commitments and relations with Moscow, and its pursuit of strategic autonomy through domestic arms production. It also examines how the foreign policy elite has reframed external and internal threats, with implications for regional alliances and domestic politics. Türkiye’s role in brokering grain export agreements, facilitating prisoner exchanges, and supplying weapons to Ukraine, while simultaneously refraining from imposing sanctions on Russia, underscores Ankara’s approach to balancing great power competition. This highlights its evolving strategy of leveraging instability to secure strategic advantages. By analysing Türkiye’s evolving security perceptions in the context of the Ukraine war, this chapter contributes to an understanding of the interplay between national priorities and broader European security dynamics and provides insights into the potential long-term consequences for regional and global stability.