Modeling of Kashmir Aftershock Decay Based on Static Coulomb Stress Changes and Laboratory-Derived Rate-and-State Dependent Friction Law

We model the spatial and temporal evolution of October 8, 2005 Kashmir earthquake’s aftershock activity using the rate-and-state dependent friction model incorporating uncertainties in computed coseismic stress perturbations. We estimated the best possible value for frictional resistance ‘‘Arn’’, background seismicity rate ‘‘r’’ and coefficient of stress variation ‘‘CV’’ using maximum log-likelihood method. For the whole Kashmir earthquake sequence, we measure a frictional resistance Arn * 0.0185 MPa, r * 20 M3.7? events/year and CV = 0.94 ± 0.01. The spatial and temporal forecasted seismicity rate of modeled aftershocks fits well with the spatial and temporal distribution of observed aftershocks that occurred in the regions with positive static stress changes as well as in the apparent stress shadow region. To quantify the effect of secondary aftershock triggering, we have re-run the estimations for 100 stochastically declustered catalogs showing that the effect of aftershock-induced secondary stress changes is obviously minor compared to the overall uncertainties, and that the stress variability related to uncertain slip model inversions and receiver mechanisms remains the major factor to provide a reasonable data fit.