Predictive role of CHA2DS2-VASc score for cardiovascular events and death in patients with arterial hypertension and stable sinus rhythm

Background The CHA2DS2-VASc score well stratifies the risk for thromboembolic events in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients. This score may also predict thromboembolic events in sinus rhythm populations. Purpose The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic role of CHA2DS2-VASc in a Caucasian community population of patients with arterial hypertension and sinus rhythm. Methods A total of 12,599 arterial hypertension residents not receiving anticoagulation were selected from a community population in Trieste between November 2009 and October 2014: 11,159 sinus rhythm and 1440 NVAF patients. We considered thromboembolic events, cardiovascular hospitalisation and all-cause death in all patients divided according to CHA2DS2-VASc. Results Sinus rhythm patients were 74 (interquartile range 65-81) years old, 50% were women, 32% with CAD, mean CHA2DS2-VASc 3.68 ± 1.47 points, significantly lower than NVAF patients (4.26 ± 1.50, P < 0.001). After 37 months follow-up, an increasing CHA2DS2-VASc corresponded to a higher rate of thromboembolic events in sinus rhythm patients, ranging from 0% in patients with a score of 1 or 2 to 2.6% in those with a score of 6 or greater ( P < 0.0001). A similar trend was found in the reference NVAF group. At Cox multivariable analysis, CHA2DS2-VASc predicted thromboembolic events (hazard ratio (HR) 2.12), cardiovascular hospitalisation (HR 1.55) and all-cause death (HR 1.57). The predictive accuracy of CHA2DS2-VASc was similar in sinus rhythm and NVAF patients for thromboembolic events, cardiovascular hospitalisation and all-cause death (area under the curve statistic 0.76 vs. 0.76, 0.68 vs. 0.66, 0.64 vs. 0.64, respectively). Conclusions In a community population of Caucasian arterial hypertension patients in sinus rhythm, CHA2DS2-VASc rather well stratifies for adverse clinical events at mid-term follow-up with a similar accuracy to NVAF patients. These results might be clinically relevant in this setting of sinus rhythm patients.