Site-specific ground motion modeling for a historical Cairo site as a step towards computation of seismic input at cultural heritage sites

Throughout time, the area of historical Cairo has been affected by several earthquakes from near and distant seismogenic zones. The maximum earthquake intensity reported in Cairo is VII, on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale, due to the 1992 Cairo earthquake (Mw=5.9). About 212 Coptic and Islamic monuments were damaged. The spatial distribution of damage, suggests the occurrence of strong local site effects in combination with high vulnerability of the cultural heritage buildings. This study presents the application of a novel seismic hazard analysis approach at a local scale based on physics-based ground motion simulations. A site-specific multi-scenario seismic input (ground motion time histories and response spectra) is computed at a heritage building in Cairo, considering the local site effect. The seismic input is calculated in three steps: a regional scale analysis followed by a site-specific analysis and the combinations of the computed scenarios ground motion. In the regional scale analysis synthetic accelerograms are computed at the site bedrock. Then, the site-specific analysis is performed to calculate the site surface ground motions or response spectra considering the local site effect. Three earthquake scenarios have been considered, characterized by different locations, magnitudes, and fault configurations. The last step consists in the combination of the computed scenario ground motion into one single multi-scenario seismic input specific for the site of interest. This input is represented by spectral ordinates and their variability. For the engineering purpose of time history analysis, the method allows also to extract the computed site specific physics-based accelerograms, requiring no amplitude scaling nor filtering by magnitudes, distances, or site classifications, as usually done with real ground motion records.