Initial renal histology and early response predict outcomes of Brazilian lupus nephritis patients

Objective: We analyzed baseline and follow-up characteristics related to poorer renal outcomes in a Brazilian cohort of admixture race patients with lupus nephritis. Methods: Overall, 280 outpatients with a diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus and previous kidney biopsy of lupus nephritis were recruited from August 2015 to December 2018 and had baseline laboratory and histologic data retrospectively analyzed; patients were then followed-up and data were recorded. The main outcome measure was the estimated glomerular filtration rate at last follow-up. Secondary analyses assessed the impact of initial kidney histology and treatment in long-term kidney survival. Results: Median duration of lupus nephritis was 60 months (interquartile range: 27–120); 40 (14.3%) patients presented progressive chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 and ≥10 ml/min/1.73 m2) or end-stage kidney disease at last visit. Adjusted logistic regression analysis showed that class IV lupus nephritis (odds ratio 14.91; 95% confidence interval 1.77–125.99; p = 0.01) and interstitial fibrosis ≥25% at initial biopsy (odds ratio 5.87; 95% confidence interval 1.32–26.16; p = 0.02), lack of complete or partial response at 12 months (odds ratio 16.3; 95% confidence interval 3.74–71.43; p < 0.001), and a second renal flare (odds ratio 4.49; 95% confidence interval 1.10–18.44; p = 0.04) were predictors of progressive chronic kidney disease. In a Kaplan-Meier survival curve we found that class IV lupus nephritis and interstitial fibrosis ≥25% were significantly associated with end-stage kidney disease throughout follow-up (hazard ratio 2.96; 95% confidence interval 1.3–7.0; p = 0.036 and hazard ratio 4.96; 95% confidence interval 1.9–12.9; p < 0.0001, respectively). Conclusion: In this large cohort of admixture race patients, class IV lupus nephritis and chronic interstitial damage at initial renal biopsy together with non-response after 1 year of therapy and relapse were associated with worse long-term renal outcomes.