Out-migration concerns foreigners who decide to leave a country where they used to live. Taking advantage of the OECD bilateral IMS database, we analyze the short-run determinants of out-migration using a panel of Schengen countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that out-migration is counter-cyclical: foreign nationals tend to leave host countries with high unemployment, while they are likelier to stay in good times (i.e. low unemployment). Typically, a 10 % increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 5 % increase in out-migration. Thus, short-term economic fluctuations have the same qualitative effect as restrictive migration policies in economic downturns. However, we find mixed evidence for the role of economic cycles in the potential destination countries of those flows. Movers appear to be sensitive to unemployment changes in their country of origin, but they do not seem to be sensitive to business cycles in potential destinations.
Out-migration and economic cycles
Magris F.;
2017-01-01
Abstract
Out-migration concerns foreigners who decide to leave a country where they used to live. Taking advantage of the OECD bilateral IMS database, we analyze the short-run determinants of out-migration using a panel of Schengen countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that out-migration is counter-cyclical: foreign nationals tend to leave host countries with high unemployment, while they are likelier to stay in good times (i.e. low unemployment). Typically, a 10 % increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 5 % increase in out-migration. Thus, short-term economic fluctuations have the same qualitative effect as restrictive migration policies in economic downturns. However, we find mixed evidence for the role of economic cycles in the potential destination countries of those flows. Movers appear to be sensitive to unemployment changes in their country of origin, but they do not seem to be sensitive to business cycles in potential destinations.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
---|---|---|---|
191182.pdf
Accesso chiuso
Descrizione: articolo
Tipologia:
Documento in Versione Editoriale
Licenza:
Copyright Editore
Dimensione
744.24 kB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
744.24 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri Richiedi una copia |
2967200_191182-PostPrint.pdf
accesso aperto
Descrizione: PostPrint VQR3
Tipologia:
Bozza finale post-referaggio (post-print)
Licenza:
Digital Rights Management non definito
Dimensione
1.12 MB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
1.12 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri |
Pubblicazioni consigliate
I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.