Dark Energy Survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

Doux, C.; Baxter, E.; Lemos, P.; Chang, C.; Alarcon, A.; Amon, A.; Campos, A.; Choi, A.; Gatti, M.; Gruen, D.; Jarvis, M.; Maccrann, N.; Park, Y.; Prat, J.; Rau, M. M.; Raveri, M.; Samuroff, S.; Derose, J.; Hartley, W. G.; Hoyle, B.; Troxel, M. A.; Zuntz, J.; Abbott, T. M. C.; Aguena, M.; Allam, S.; Annis, J.; Avila, S.; Bacon, D.; Bertin, E.; Bhargava, S.; Brooks, D.; Burke, D. L.; Carrasco Kind, M.; Carretero, J.; Cawthon, R.; Costanzi, M.; Da Costa, L. N.; Pereira, M. E. S.; Desai, S.; Diehl, H. T.; Dietrich, J. P.; Doel, P.; Everett, S.; Ferrero, I.; Fosalba, P.; Frieman, J.; García-Bellido, J.; Gerdes, D. W.; Giannantonio, T.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gschwend, J.; Gutierrez, G.; Hinton, S. R.; Hollowood, D. L.; Honscheid, K.; Huff, E. M.; Huterer, D.; Jain, B.; James, D. J.; Krause, E.; Kuehn, K.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lahav, O.; Lidman, C.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; Menanteau, F.; Miquel, R.; Morgan, R.; Muir, J.; Ogando, R. L. C.; Palmese, A.; Paz-Chinchón, F.; Plazas, A. A.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Serrano, S.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, M.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; To, C.; Tucker, D. L.; Varga, T. N.; Weller, J.; Wilkinson, R. D.

doi:10.1093/mnras/stab526

Beyond-$Lambda$CDM physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analyzed assuming $Lambda$CDM. We present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of $Lambda$CDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to $Lambda$CDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of ${p = 0.046}$. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5%) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the $p$-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets....

Dark Energy Survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions / Doux, C.; Baxter, E.; Lemos, P.; Chang, C.; Alarcon, A.; Amon, A.; Campos, A.; Choi, A.; Gatti, M.; Gruen, D.; Jarvis, M.; Maccrann, N.; Park, Y.; Prat, J.; Rau, M. M.; Raveri, M.; Samuroff, S.; Derose, J.; Hartley, W. G.; Hoyle, B.; Troxel, M. A.; Zuntz, J.; Abbott, T. M. C.; Aguena, M.; Allam, S.; Annis, J.; Avila, S.; Bacon, D.; Bertin, E.; Bhargava, S.; Brooks, D.; Burke, D. L.; Carrasco Kind, M.; Carretero, J.; Cawthon, R.; Costanzi, M.; da Costa, L. N.; Pereira, M. E. S.; Desai, S.; Diehl, H. T.; Dietrich, J. P.; Doel, P.; Everett, S.; Ferrero, I.; Fosalba, P.; Frieman, J.; García-Bellido, J.; Gerdes, D. W.; Giannantonio, T.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gschwend, J.; Gutierrez, G.; Hinton, S. R.; Hollowood, D. L.; Honscheid, K.; Huff, E. M.; Huterer, D.; Jain, B.; James, D. J.; Krause, E.; Kuehn, K.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lahav, O.; Lidman, C.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; Menanteau, F.; Miquel, R.; Morgan, R.; Muir, J.; Ogando, R. L. C.; Palmese, A.; Paz-Chinchón, F.; Plazas, A. A.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Serrano, S.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, M.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; To, C.; Tucker, D. L.; Varga, T. N.; Weller, J.; Wilkinson, R. D.. - In: MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY. - ISSN 1365-2966. - 503:2(2020), pp. 2688-2705. [10.1093/mnras/stab526]