From rapid coastal collapse to slow sedimentary recovery: The morphological ups and downs of the modern Po Delta

As is the case with many deltas in the world, the Po Delta (Italy) and its barrier systems have experienced severe modifications over the last century as a consequence of anthropogenic subsidence and river input decrease. The interruption of subsurface fluid withdrawals in the early 1960s created an opportunity to evaluate the effects of the subsequent subsidence decrease along the 11 km of beaches and 45 km of barrier islands of the Po Delta, and improve the understanding of coastal system response to relative sea level rise. To this aim, shoreline and bathymetric multi-decadal dataset were coupled with the local rate of subsidence and classified with a geomorphic - response approach. From 1954-78, a mean shoreline variation of −224 m (−9.34 m y−1) occurred under high rates of subsidence (14–43 mm y−1) with a diffuse process of landward barrier rollover (up to 1124 m), frequently associated with break-up. This phase is evidenced by the diffuse sinking of the shoreface (up to 4 m), the negative upper-shoreface sediment budget and the parallel drowning of the cross-shore profiles highlighted by the 1968–2008 bathymetric dataset. Despite the loss of altimetry and shoreline retreat being almost irrecoverable, during the period from 1978 to 1996 and 1996 to 2014 barrier islands experienced a stabilisation in response to a decrease in the subsidence rates down to 6 mm y−1. The mean rates of shoreline changes (−0.25 and + 1.51 m y−1 respectively) are the results of different local behaviour with progressively dominant longshore processes and progradation at the most active fluvial branches. The most recent bathymetric data (2008–2014) confirm this reversal trend, both in the altimetry differences and in the upper shoreface sediment budget. This trend is at odds with signals from many of the world's deltas and represents an important issue for the present and future coastal management and adaptation plans.