Multi-scenario Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Assessment of Cultural Heritage Sites

For relevant engineering purposes a viable alternative to standard estimates of seismic hazard is represented by the use of physics-based ground shaking scenarios. The scenarios are characterized in terms of magnitude, distance and faulting style, taking into account the complexity of the kinematic source rupturing process. In fact, ground-shaking scenarios modelled before the occurrence of an earthquake can be of extreme value in any seismic risk study, in particular in sites with priceless cultural heritage. In those places the effect of low occurrence rate—high consequences events can lead to invaluable losses, therefore an accurate evaluation of the expected ground motions is desirable. To this purpose, a web application, with a friendly graphic user interface, has been developed for multi-scenario physics-based seismic zoning and microzoning (considering site effects). Computational examples at different space and detail scales are presented, focussing on historical sites, such as the Dahshur pyramids, the Madrasa of the Princess Tatar al-Higaziya, Saint Catherine's Monastery in Egypt. For all the cases, the acceleration time histories, generated with the knowledge of the physical properties of the earthquake source and of the medium travelled by the seismic waves, can be used by engineers as seismic input for the vulnerability assessment.