Insights into peer-to-peer carsharing: Modelling and scenario analysis via a Bass diffusion agent-based model

Our paper aims at estimating the uptake of peer-to-peer carsharing (P2PCS) in less-densely populated areas and how it could be influenced by innovation, social interaction and transport policies. We specified a Bass Diffusion agent-based model including two modules representing the supply and demand of P2PCS. Both modules are parametrized with data derived from a discrete choice survey of potential users (N = 449) representative of the population living in Friuli-Venezia Giulia, an Italian region bordering with Austria and Slovenia. We specified the rental rate as a dynamic variable that varies according to the excess of demand or supply. Innovation and imitation effects change the status of car owners and car drivers into potential P2PCS users. According to our simulations the P2PCS market would reach a steady state at a rental rate of 6.1 euro/h with 7% of car owners and car renters engaging in the system. We also found that if the preferences for the servitization paradigm were more diffused, P2PCS would be used by 11% of the population at a rental rate of 5.5 is an element of/h, and that adopting a package of highly effective policies supporting both the demand and the supply would increase the market share up to 42%.