Background: The prevalence and incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCCs) driven by human papillomavirus (HPV) infection are increasing worldwide, being higher in high-income countries. However, data from Italy are scanty. p16(INK4a) overexpression is the standard in determining HPV-driven carcinogenesis, but disease prevalence impacts on its positive predictive value. Methods: This is a multicenter retrospective study enrolling 390 consecutive patients aged =18 years, diagnosed with pathologically confirmed OPSCC in Northeastern Italy between 2000 and 2022. High-risk HPV-DNA and p16(INK4a) status were retrieved from medical records or evaluated in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens. A tumor was defined as HPV-driven when double positive for high-risk HPV-DNA and p16(INK4a) overexpression. Results: Overall, 125 cases (32%) were HPV-driven, with a significant upward temporal trend from 12% in 2000-2006 to 50% in 2019-2022. The prevalence of HPV-driven cancer of the tonsil and base of the tongue increased up to 59%, whereas it remained below 10% in other subsites. Consequently, the p16(INK4a) positive predictive value was 89% for the former and 29% for the latter. Conclusions: The prevalence of HPV-driven OPSCC continued to increase, even in the most recent period. When using p16(INK4a) overexpression as a surrogate marker of transforming HPV infection, each institution should consider the subsite-specific prevalence rates of HPV-driven OPSCC as these significantly impact on its positive predictive value.

Rising Trend in the Prevalence of HPV-Driven Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma during 2000-2022 in Northeastern Italy: Implication for Using p16INK4a as a Surrogate Marker for HPV-Driven Carcinogenesis

Boscolo-Rizzo, Paolo;Lazzarin, Chiara;Zanconati, Fabrizio;Giacomarra, Vittorio;Tofanelli, Margherita;Tirelli, Giancarlo
2023-01-01

Abstract

Background: The prevalence and incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCCs) driven by human papillomavirus (HPV) infection are increasing worldwide, being higher in high-income countries. However, data from Italy are scanty. p16(INK4a) overexpression is the standard in determining HPV-driven carcinogenesis, but disease prevalence impacts on its positive predictive value. Methods: This is a multicenter retrospective study enrolling 390 consecutive patients aged =18 years, diagnosed with pathologically confirmed OPSCC in Northeastern Italy between 2000 and 2022. High-risk HPV-DNA and p16(INK4a) status were retrieved from medical records or evaluated in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens. A tumor was defined as HPV-driven when double positive for high-risk HPV-DNA and p16(INK4a) overexpression. Results: Overall, 125 cases (32%) were HPV-driven, with a significant upward temporal trend from 12% in 2000-2006 to 50% in 2019-2022. The prevalence of HPV-driven cancer of the tonsil and base of the tongue increased up to 59%, whereas it remained below 10% in other subsites. Consequently, the p16(INK4a) positive predictive value was 89% for the former and 29% for the latter. Conclusions: The prevalence of HPV-driven OPSCC continued to increase, even in the most recent period. When using p16(INK4a) overexpression as a surrogate marker of transforming HPV infection, each institution should consider the subsite-specific prevalence rates of HPV-driven OPSCC as these significantly impact on its positive predictive value.
2023
7-mag-2023
Pubblicato
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/15/9/2643
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10177129/
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3050179
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