Shall we have another? Effects of daycare benefits on fertility, a case study in a region in Northeastern Italy

Policy attempts in Italy to raise fertility place considerable importance on subsidizing daycare. The aim of this paper is to determine whether receiving a daycare subsidy for one child increases the probability of having a subsequent child in the Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) region in Italy. A novel approach is used combining administrative data on the means test certification (Indicatore della Situazione Economica Equivalente or ISEE) needed to access various benefits, matched with the actual subsidy requests. Propensity score matching is applied to the resulting longitudinal data set and the matched data are analyzed with an event history analysis model. Results suggest that besides a positive impact of daycare subsidies and family wealth, non-monetary factors have a larger effect, with female employment having a possible postponement effect on subsequent births.