Background: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator (ACS-NSQIP SRC) has been designed to predict morbidity and mortality and help stratify surgical patients. This study evaluates the performance of the SRC for patients undergoing surgery for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). Methods: SRC was retrospectively computed for patients undergoing liver or simultaneous colon and liver surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) in two high tertiary referral centres from 2011 to 2020. C-statistics and Brier score were calculated as a mean of discrimination and calibration respectively, for both group and for every level of surgeon adjustment score (SAS) for liver resections in case of simultaneous liver-colon surgery. An AUC ≥ 0.7 shows acceptable discrimination; a Brier score next to 0 means the prediction tool has good calibration. Results: Four hundred ten patients were included, 153 underwent simultaneous resection, and 257 underwent liver-only resections. For simultaneous surgery, the ACS-NSQIP SRC showed good calibration and discrimination only for cardiac complication (AUC = 0.720, 0.740, and 0.702 for liver resection unadjusted, SAS-2, and SAS-3 respectively; 0.714 for colon resection; and Brier score = 0.04 in every case). For liver-only surgery, it only showed good calibration for cardiac complications (Brier score = 0.03). The SRC underestimated the incidence of overall complications, pneumonia, cardiac complications, and the length of hospital stay. Conclusions: ACS-NSQIP SRC showed good predicting capabilities only for 1 out of 5 evaluated outcomes; therefore, it is not a reliable tool for patients undergoing liver surgery for CRLM, both in the simultaneous and staged resections.

Evaluation of the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in Patients with Hepatic Metastases from Colorectal Cancer Undergoing Liver Resection

Tarchi, Paola
Methodology
;
de Manzini Nicolo
Membro del Collaboration Group
;
2023-01-01

Abstract

Background: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator (ACS-NSQIP SRC) has been designed to predict morbidity and mortality and help stratify surgical patients. This study evaluates the performance of the SRC for patients undergoing surgery for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). Methods: SRC was retrospectively computed for patients undergoing liver or simultaneous colon and liver surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) in two high tertiary referral centres from 2011 to 2020. C-statistics and Brier score were calculated as a mean of discrimination and calibration respectively, for both group and for every level of surgeon adjustment score (SAS) for liver resections in case of simultaneous liver-colon surgery. An AUC ≥ 0.7 shows acceptable discrimination; a Brier score next to 0 means the prediction tool has good calibration. Results: Four hundred ten patients were included, 153 underwent simultaneous resection, and 257 underwent liver-only resections. For simultaneous surgery, the ACS-NSQIP SRC showed good calibration and discrimination only for cardiac complication (AUC = 0.720, 0.740, and 0.702 for liver resection unadjusted, SAS-2, and SAS-3 respectively; 0.714 for colon resection; and Brier score = 0.04 in every case). For liver-only surgery, it only showed good calibration for cardiac complications (Brier score = 0.03). The SRC underestimated the incidence of overall complications, pneumonia, cardiac complications, and the length of hospital stay. Conclusions: ACS-NSQIP SRC showed good predicting capabilities only for 1 out of 5 evaluated outcomes; therefore, it is not a reliable tool for patients undergoing liver surgery for CRLM, both in the simultaneous and staged resections.
2023
14-ago-2023
Pubblicato
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11605-023-05784-9
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
s11605-023-05784-9.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: Documento in Versione Editoriale
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 1.15 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.15 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
Pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3054758
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? 0
  • Scopus 0
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 0
social impact