Conflict between pro-Europe western and pro-Russia eastern Ukrainians started at the beginning of the 1990s and remained non-violent for 25 years. Western or eastern presidents usually won elections every 4-5 years. In 2004 there was the electoral ‘Orange’ revolution and the western Ukrainian majority prevailed over Russian minorities of the east, as Ukraine remained a centralized state. In 2014 war started with Russians in Donbass, while Crimea declared a ‘de facto’ independence and was annexed to Russia without any violence. In February 2022, Russia invaded eastern Ukraine (Novorossiya) and a war started between the two countries. At Minsk Kiev government granted only administrative autonomy (an asymmetric integration) to the Russians of the east, that rejected it. Conflict resolution projects are: exchange (between Russian Crimea and Ukrainian Novorossiya without Kiev in Nato), symmetric integration (federalism in Ukraine), single-nation separation (of Crimea and part of Novorossiya, through a referendum). If no peace agreement is reached, a territorial compromise could emerge between the two countries (with an uncertain frontier), while solutions like unilateral dominion or subversion (through a coup d’état) are less likely. Zelensky and Biden applied a ‘politically correct’ diplomacy, that discourages conflict resolution, and rejected both real-politik of the Cold War, and the liberal project of world order of the 1900s and early 2000s.

Before and after crises in Ukraine. The conflict and some proposals for resolution

Fossati, Fabio
2023-01-01

Abstract

Conflict between pro-Europe western and pro-Russia eastern Ukrainians started at the beginning of the 1990s and remained non-violent for 25 years. Western or eastern presidents usually won elections every 4-5 years. In 2004 there was the electoral ‘Orange’ revolution and the western Ukrainian majority prevailed over Russian minorities of the east, as Ukraine remained a centralized state. In 2014 war started with Russians in Donbass, while Crimea declared a ‘de facto’ independence and was annexed to Russia without any violence. In February 2022, Russia invaded eastern Ukraine (Novorossiya) and a war started between the two countries. At Minsk Kiev government granted only administrative autonomy (an asymmetric integration) to the Russians of the east, that rejected it. Conflict resolution projects are: exchange (between Russian Crimea and Ukrainian Novorossiya without Kiev in Nato), symmetric integration (federalism in Ukraine), single-nation separation (of Crimea and part of Novorossiya, through a referendum). If no peace agreement is reached, a territorial compromise could emerge between the two countries (with an uncertain frontier), while solutions like unilateral dominion or subversion (through a coup d’état) are less likely. Zelensky and Biden applied a ‘politically correct’ diplomacy, that discourages conflict resolution, and rejected both real-politik of the Cold War, and the liberal project of world order of the 1900s and early 2000s.
2023
Pubblicato
https://www.openstarts.units.it/handle/10077/35634
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
FF2023PoliarchieUcraina.pdf

accesso aperto

Descrizione: articolo
Tipologia: Documento in Versione Editoriale
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 6.28 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
6.28 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
Pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3068859
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus ND
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact