The Economic Feasibility of Battery Electric Trucks: A Review of the Total Cost of Ownership Estimates

This paper reviews the existing studies employing total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis to evaluate the comparative economic viability of battery electric trucks (BETs) and diesel trucks (DTs). A key finding is that until recent years, BETs have not been cost-competitive with DTs. Light-duty trucks and medium-duty trucks started to become competitive in 2021 (1) according to some estimates, whereas heavy-duty trucks might remain to be not competitive even in future decades. However, (2) TCO estimates differ across continents. (3) The combing effect of fuel prices and taxes is most likely responsible for the fact that BETs enjoy a stronger competitive position relative to DTs in Europe, Asia, and Oceania, whereas, in North America, most estimates assign them poor competitiveness, both presently and in the coming years. (4) Most studies underline that significant cost disproportions persist in the heavy-duty truck segment due to its demanding operational requirements and a lack of robust high-powered charging infrastructure. Consequently, substantial financial incentives and subsidies will be required for heavy-duty trucks to enhance their economic viability, potentially accelerating cost parity from post-2035 to the near future. This paper identifies several constraints in its TCO analysis, including limited data on residual values, variability in discount rates, depreciation costs, and a lack of longitudinal and market data for BETs.