Somalia: dal Collasso dello Stato alla Transizione Permanente

Somalia is today one of the most emblematic cases of state crisis and permanent transition. Since the fall of the Siyaad Barre regime (1991) the country has experienced clan fragmentation, civil war and the emergence of radical political Islam, with the Shebaab as the main security challenge. Attempts at institutional reconstruction – from the TNG to the current federal model – have produced limited results, while some local realities such as Somaliland and Puntland have developed hybrid forms of governance that are relatively stable and rooted in tradition. The international community, oscillating between support for central government and recognition of peripheral entities, has failed to overcome structural fragilities. In recent years, extra-regional actors such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey have increased their influence, turning Somalia into an arena of geopolitical competition. A complex picture emerges, characterized by persistent instability but also by local experiments in stability and consolidation.