Techno-economic assessment of Hydrogen-Based Trucks and Buses

The European Union's Green Deal and REPowerEU plan position clean hydrogen as a cornerstone of its decarbonization strategy. The transport sector is a primary target, yet the viability of hydrogen remains uncertain. This industrial PhD thesis, conducted within the EU's North Adriatic Hydrogen Valley (NAHV) project, moves beyond projections to provide an empirically grounded answer to the central research question: Does hydrogen have a viable future in the transport sector, and if so, in which segments and under which enabling conditions? The dissertation employs a progressive, three-stage research pathway to "close the research loop" from theory to practice, moving from a literature assessment to an advanced simulation-based analysis, and culminating in an empirical validation grounded in real-world project data. The research commences with a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) of the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for Fuel Cell Electric Buses (FCEBs). This foundational chapter identifies critical limitations in existing literature: (i) an over-reliance on simulated data versus real-world procurement inputs; (ii) significant ambiguity in the quantification of infrastructure costs; and (iii) a critical omission of logistical performance metrics. Addressing these gaps, Chapter 2 expands the scope to commercial road transport (HDVs and LCVs). Its key innovation is complementing the TCO metric with a logistical performance dimension (e.g., order fulfillment rates) using advanced hybrid simulation (integrating DES, SD, and ABM). This phase compares hydrogen, diesel, and battery-electric powertrains, revealing a critical trade-off: while FCEVs often exhibit logistical parity with diesel, their economic performance is a major barrier. Conversely, BEVs may show a competitive TCO but can incur significant logistical penalties in long-haul applications, proving TCO alone is an insufficient metric. The final phase grounds the thesis in empirical reality via real-world procurement data from two pioneering Italian case studies (Monfalcone/Ferrara) within the NAHV/PNRR framework. This chapter quantifies the "real-world cost premium" of first-of-a-kind projects, finding capital costs for electrolyzers and Hydrogen Refueling Stations (HRS) are substantially higher than theoretical estimates. Second, it frames the operator's decision as a strategic "Make vs. Buy" choice: a trade-off between high upfront capital risk (to achieve price stability) and long-term market risk (exposure to price volatility). Third, the results confirm all hydrogen pathways remain significantly more expensive than the diesel baseline, underscoring the necessity of public support. By progressing from literature gaps to simulation and empirical evidence, this dissertation answers its central research question with a qualified affirmative: hydrogen has a viable future, but its role will be targeted at specific, hard-to-electrify segments (heavy-duty, captive fleets) where its logistical advantages are most pronounced. Its success is contingent on enabling conditions, including targeted policy to de-risk investment, integrated business models, and strategic choices by operators that align with their specific risk profiles.