Preferences for tram use and extension of the tramway network: an empirical analysis based on RP/SP data in Florence, Italy

This study investigates citizens’ preferences for tram use and their willingness to support the expansion of the tramway network in Florence, Italy. The analysis is based on a survey conducted among residents of Florence and neighbouring municipalities, combining revealed preference (RP) data on actual travel behaviour with stated preference (SP) choice experiments. A nested logit model is estimated using RP, SP and joint RP/SP datasets to assess the existence and magnitude of a “tram bonus”, defined as a preference for tram over bus beyond observable service attributes. In addition, binary logit models and descriptive analysis are used to examine public support for network expansion and willingness to pay (WTP) through a dedicated local tax. The results provide evidence of a positive and statistically significant tram bonus, indicating that the tram generates additional utility related to qualitative and perceptual factors. This result should not be interpreted as evidence of an inherent technological superiority of trams over buses. Rather, the residual preference captured by the alternative-specific constant likely reflects a combination of service characteristics and user perceptions, not explicitly included in the model, that are difficult to observe or quantify directly. A majority of respondents support the network extension, and a substantial share is willing to contribute financially, although WTP varies across socio-economic groups and according to travel behaviour and proximity to the planned line. The observed political support indicates that earmarked local funding mechanisms can be socially acceptable.