Bridging the Intention–Behavior Gap in Employee Turnover: A Longitudinal Validation of the Ordinal Turnover Intention Scale (OTIS)

Employee retention is a strategic priority for organizations operating in increasingly competitive labor markets, yet predicting long-term employee departure remains a critical challenge. This study examines the longitudinal validity of the Ordinal Turnover Intention Scale (OTIS), a single-item instrument designed to assess employees’ progression through the decision-making stages of turnover. A three-wave longitudinal study was conducted over 12 months. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses showed that the OTIS substantially improved turnover prediction beyond traditional turnover intention measures. A three-wave mediation analysis further showed that employees’ progression through the OTIS stages served as a key explanatory pathway linking initial turnover intentions to subsequent turnover. Finally, ROC curve analyses identified preliminary diagnostic thresholds that can support timely and targeted HR interventions. Beyond providing longitudinal validation of the OTIS, this study shows that conceptualizing turnover intention as a stage-based decision process rather than solely as a continuous intensity construct improves turnover prediction. This single-item instrument is easy to administer, suitable for repeated assessment, and readily integrated into HR analytics to support early identification of employees at risk of leaving and talent retention strategies.