Governance and financing frameworks for hydrogen refueling stations under uncertainty: A hybrid MCDM analysis of the Northern Adriatic Hydrogen Valley

The decarbonization of road transport has positioned green hydrogen as a critical vector for sustainable mobility, particularly in hard-to-abate segments. Yet, the large-scale deployment of hydrogen refueling stations (HRS) remains constrained by capital intensity, regulatory uncertainty, and demand volatility. Due to paucity of empirical evidence linking governance and financing models to HRS deployment pathways; this study develops a hybrid multi criteria decision-making framework, combining Grey Relational Analysis and fuzzy-VIKOR, to prioritize ten operational, techno-economic and regulatory criteria and to determine the comparative ranking of five governance and financing models: Build–Operate–Transfer (BOT), Transfer–Operate–Transfer (TOT), Public-Private Partnership (PPP), Hydrogen-as-a-Service (HaaS) and Asset-Backed Securitization (ABS). Given the early-stage uncertainties, the strategic and governance capabilities emerged as the most prominent determinants with the highest priority weights. HaaS and ABS appear effective as complementary mechanisms for smoothing capital requirements and diversifying investors when embedded in hybrid structures. Overall, the analysis underscores three key insights: (i) HRS deployment is constrained more by institutional design than by technological readiness; (ii) market-centric governance frameworks and regulatory harmonization are essential for scalability; and (iii) PPP-led models offer a viable pathway to bolster the sustainable expansion of HRS infrastructure, particularly within the transnational hydrogen valley initiative.