Analysis of the economic uncertainty in the energy requalification of buildings in a climate change context

The renovation of buildings involves several interconnected aspects. In addition to energy saving needs, the economic aspect has a strong impact which remains fundamental for the development of an energy requalifica-tion policy, Another aspect often overlooked is that related to climate change. Usually consumption and any savings are calculated with respect to local climatic data obtained from past historical series which may not be valid in the future. Furthermore, economic calculations are usually made using data also obtained from the past, but influenced by uncertainty about future trends, such as the cost of energy. This work analyses the impacts of an energy requalification intervention on a building obtained from the Tabula project. considering both the energy savings for heating and the net present value of the intervention. However, this last figure is also considered probabilistic given the uncertainty of the costs of the intervention and the cost of energy. The effect of climate change is also evaluated with respect to the summer conditioning of the building. Calculations are made using the Energy Plus software using current and future climate data forecasted using various GCM-RCM models obtained from the EURO-CORDEX database.